The End of Winter

NSS Comments 10-02-17

2010-02-17T11:58:00.000-08:00

Thomas Matula Says:
I tell you this is truly historical. I never thought I would see Rush Limbaugh and organized labor on the same team… I guess President Obama really has a magical way of bringing people together from all walks of life
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When you add me to that coalition, it gets even stranger still. How many of you have run an anti-government political party at the state level? I also ran a state Cabinet agency for seven years, but that’s another story…

TCS
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This is shaping up to be an interesting battle in Congress. Especially with Democrats like Senator Bayh threatening to split the party in the next presidential election…
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Not anymore.

He’s said no way, no how, is he going to run in 2012. Too bad, really. If he did, it would be the first time I’ve considered voting for a Dem Prez candidate in many decades.

TCS
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Edward Wright Says:
For example, I’ve never had an interest in the Moon/Mars debate, because the purpose is to go somewhere, and do something, that we haven’t done before. Faster than can be justified on a commercial basis. And that’s the key.
It doesn’t matter where NASA astronauts go, or how, or why — as long as the trip can’t be justified on a commercial basis?
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Basically, yes. I want the government to push the limits, preferably far beyond what would happen naturally. Having some destination matters, to focus the development efforts. I’m less concerned with the specific destination selection, although the Moon seems like the obvious choice to me.

TCS
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Does that make sense to you, Terry? There’s no commercial justification for flying T-38s from Texas to Wyoming just to pick up burgers and fries — does that mean astronauts should fly their T-38s from Texas to Wyoming to pick up burgers and fries?
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Silliness, unrelated to what I’m saying. There’s no new technology development that results from your suggestion. Although…if they want me to fly one of the T-38s, I’ll support the proposal in a heartbeat!

TCS
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In the sense of “Boldly Going Where No One Has Gone Before,” absolutely. Absolutely.
Do you think no one has gone to the Moon before?
The flexible path to the asteroids, the LaGrange points, the moons of Mars, etc. seems to fit that definition much better.
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All that’s fine. As long as there’s a specific destination and a timeline, and most importantly, funding, I’m pretty flexible on the destination itself. I just think the Moon would be the easiest sell.

TCS
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Rand Simberg Says: February 16th, 2010 at 9:30 pm
Terry (ignoring the other multitudinous issues with your response), we’re still awaiting an explanation as to why increasing the number of ways to get people to orbit, at lower cost per person, is “killing the American manned space program.”
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You’re not waiting; you just missed it. What you describe is a good thing, and I said so. What’s bad (terrible, in fact), is the absence of a funded destination. That is what’s killing the American manned space program.

What you seem to have missed is that flushing Constellation/Ares doesn’t bother me excessively. What bothers me is flushing the return to the Moon mission. I’d prefer to have private industry do it, as long as the mission is funded, with completion dates.

It’s not. And that’s my objection.

TCS
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Fletcher Christian Says: February 17th, 2010 at 4:18 am
The aim is get a reasonable number of humans (in the thousands, minimum) off this mudball, right? Incidentally, there is undoubtedly a critical number of humans in space that will solve the rest of the problem of space colonisation with no further input from Earth.
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If we can get 50 people, that will be good enough. Not from a gene pool perspective, perhaps, but if we get that far, we’ll keep going.

TCS
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Thomas Matula Says: February 17th, 2010 at 7:28 am
Rand,
The reference to popcorn above was to watching the Democrats split and President Obama having to run against one or more strong Democratic candidates in the presidential primary. Its what happens when Presidents try to rule rather then govern.
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Obama is toast. He has chosen the Carter path, rather than the Clinton path.

TCS
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Edward Wright Says: February 17th, 2010 at 10:12 am
If there was a killer space rock headed for our planet the best scenario to save the maximum amount of humanity would still be on this planet, not in space. A nuclear-powered submarine underwater would be much cheaper and able to save more of humanity
I know I’m going to regret asking this, but how do you think a nuclear submarine would stop a killer space rock?
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In the short term, from a species survival standpoint, the purpose of a space colony is to make sure we survive at all. It won’t take many people to do that. But then, species survival is only one of many reasons. The cultural reasons are far more compelling.

TCS====================================

NSS Comments 10-02-16

2010-02-17T11:57:00.000-08:00

First, I appreciate the opportunity that Rand has provided to have this discussion. It’s been floating around in the background of the space community for a long time, and the main reason I put my campaign statement up know was to catalyze that discussion out into the open. My hope is that it is a lively, but respectful, discussion from all sides.

TCS
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But the new policy meets that test much better than the previous one. There was little or no hope that Constellation would have opened up the frontier, even if fully funded. This is something that NSS generally, and Terry specifically, have never really understood.

RS
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I’ve never understood it, because it isn’t true. The model is really quite simple: the government pays to develop advanced manned space techniques that make no sense to do commercially. In other words, the program does things faster than private industry could, not because they are better at it (they aren’t) but because they can do it before it makes commercial sense to do so.

And having a specific objective, where it becomes obvious if you slip or slow down and fail, is critical to making sure that actually happens.

TCS
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There is no plausible path from NASA’s “NASA uber alles” policy, in which billions are spent to send a few astronauts to a planet for some vague purpose, and space settlement. But NSS continually (despite occasional refreshing support for private activities) supports whatever NASA wants to do.

RS
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As long as NASA pushes the edges faster than they would be pushed “naturally”, I don’t have any great bias about the right direction. For example, I’ve never had an interest in the Moon/Mars debate, because the purpose is to go somewhere, and do something, that we haven’t done before. Faster than can be justified on a commercial basis. And that’s the key.

Despite having seen it live on television, at this point, in practice, we haven’t been to the Moon before.

TCS
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Defending NASA’s new plans on both charges was deputy administrator Lori Garver.

“We plan to transform our relationship with the private sector as part of our nation’s new strategy with the ultimate goal of expanding human presence across the solar system,” she said in a luncheon speech at the conference Thursday. “So don’t be fooled by those who say we have no goal. That is the goal.”

LG
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I respect Lori a great deal, but this is mostly fuzzy. It’s a good thing to do, but it’s not a goal, in the sense of going somewhere.

And, let me be clear about this. If the budget had said:

“We’re going back to the Moon, and we’re hiring Branson and Rutan to get us there,” I’d be perfectly fine with that. In fact, I’d be ecstatic. That would be the best possible result. But it didn’t say that, or anything dimly like that.

And this, perhaps, explains a lot of the difference of opinion. I don’t give a damn about having the government do the development work. In general, I think that’s a bad idea. But I want the government to pay for a real project, to go somewhere, sooner than would be justified by simple commercial requirements.

Doing that would develop technology and capabilities faster than it would be developed naturally. In my judgment, we need to get the species established in space sooner than the natural course of commercial events will cause that to happen. I’m not pushing to have the government develop technology (although I’m content with that, if that’s the only way to get it funded); I’m pushing to have the government pay to fund that accelerated development, and go somewhere.

I’m have no problem having the actual work privatized. In fact, I think that’s the right thing to do.

TCS
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Turning to the private sector to launch both cargo and crews to LEO, she continued, actually lowered the risk to the agency in the long run by keeping it from relying on a single system for human access to orbit.

RS/LG
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I completely agree with that. That’s a good thing.

But it’s not enough.

TCS
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Does this sound like a policy to “kill the American manned space program”?

RS
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In the sense of “Boldly Going Where No One Has Gone Before,” absolutely. Absolutely. Privatizing LEO work is good to do. It’s the right path for that task. But it’s not enough.

TCS
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If so, I think that Terry owes an explanation of why, to NSS members he expects to vote for him, other than a belief in the Apollo Cargo Cult.

RS
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Actually, the fact that I’m running unopposed gives me a little latitude to be even more controversial than usual…

:-)

TCS

NSS Board Campaign Statement

2010-02-16T16:20:00.000-08:00

Today, I am asking for your support for my election to the NSS Board of Directors.

I have read the NSS strategic plan in detail. It includes many useful and worthwhile tasks, but it is missing one important element: focus. We need to decide much more explicitly what we’re going to support, and what we’re going to reject.

Like any entity, NSS has limited resources, and the rules of “opportunity cost” apply. Any resources we invest in one activity, are not available for other activities. From my personal perspective, there is only one mission for the society that really matters: minimizing the time from this moment to the creation of thriving human communities in space. Space settlement. Space industrialization is essential to that result, as are many other supporting activities, but at the end of the day, space settlement is the bottom line. All activities should be tested against how well they support that core objective.

The problem isn’t primarily technological. Humanity is capable, right now, of creating self-sustaining human settlements in space. We simply choose not to do so.

On this note, I’ll say explicitly that the Obama proposal for NASA is a barely mitigated disaster. It has some good elements, like the emphasis on private sector development, but it has no clear focus of ANY KIND for the American manned space program. As a practical matter, Obama is proposing to kill the American manned space program. I think that’s wrong for the country, and I don’t like it.

You’ll find that I fairly consistently don’t play the PC game that says, “I’m OK, you’re OK, all views are good.” We need to make CHOICES about what we, as a society, are going to support, and reject. If I reject some viewpoint, you’ll know it.

NSS needs to focus on changing the pattern of resource allocation on the planet in the direction of creating space settlements, which necessarily means spending less on other things. We need to speak more directly. We need less nuance, and more simple, declarative statements.

What was that line at the end of the “Patton” speech? I don’t want to run afoul of the censors, but now you know how I feel!

I look forward to working with many of you to advance the production of independent human space settlements!

The Bubble

2010-02-16T13:57:00.000-08:00

There’s a major political bubble deflating rapidly. It has two primary components:

Global Warming
The Bush Derangement Bubble

These two are interconnected.

The legacy media pumped up Bush as the devil incarnate for years, based on highly dubious claims, and some outright bogus data. The legacy media pumped up global warming as the biggest disaster since the dinosaurs were wiped out, based on highly dubious claims, and some outright bogus data. Neither narrative bore the slightest relationship to reality. And yet, they were successful.

Obama was elected based on this bubble of bogus data. The Democrats got their majorities in Congress from the same source. But now, thanks to the ever increasing power of the internet, the bubble has been popped. It now appears that the collapse is going to have speed and magnitude of biblical proportions.

There will be much collateral change that results from this rapid bubble deflation, some good, some bad, but in most cases unpredictable. But since we’ll finally be dealing from an approach much closer to reality, on balance, the changes are likely to be good.

Like it or not, we live in interesting times!

:-)

TCS
Question with Boldness -- Thomas Jefferson
Hold to the Truth -- George Washington
Speak Without Fear -- Martin Luther King

TCS Resume, 2009

2010-02-15T13:18:00.000-08:00

Terry C Savage
774 Mays Blvd #10/122, Incline Village, NV 89451
Tel: 775-833-1413
email: Chaosrider@charter.net

Exceptional skills in the following areas: Chief Information Officer, Project Management, HIPAA, Budgeting, Strategic Management of IT resources across projects, MMIS/Healthcare, Excellent Communication Skills, Project Management Office, Vendor and Contract Management, Disaster Recovery/Business Continuity, IT Infrastructure, IT Security, Software Development, Systems Implementation and Integration, Network Operations and Capacity Planning, Server Hosting
Experience:
Andromeda Enterprises, LLC 2007 – Present

State of California
Technical Operations Manager, Department of Corrections (CDCR)

Responsible for Technical Operations for the Strategic Offender Management System (SOMS) project, including detailed project planning, and coordination between multiple organizational units.

State of Arizona
Department of Financial Institutions (AZDFI)

Planned and managed the implementation of the AZDFI IT Modernization Project. The project was designed to completely update the Department’s IT systems, infrastructure, and processes. Implemented important improvements in the area of IT security, including a new firewall system and a robust off-site back-up process.

Author

Published author, The End of Winter, available at Amazon.com. The sequel, Circle of Fire, is in final pre-publication edit.

State of Nevada 2000-2007

Chief Information Officer and Director, Nevada Department of Information Technology

Cabinet-level position appointed by Nevada Governor Kenny Guinn. Four major areas of responsibility:

Project Management and Project Management Office (PMO)

--Established the Nevada State Project Management Office (PMO) and IT Project Oversight
Committee (ITPOC). Evaluated the CMM methodology, and developed and implemented the
Nevada Project Delivery Framework based on PMI/PMBOK methodologies
--Developed and managed the information technology (IT) governance structure for Nevada
--Extensive experience presenting to all management levels, including the Governor and State
Legislature
--Executive level management of the MMIS project from inception to completion, with direct
supervision of project PM staff, project QA staff, and vendor management of the IV & V
contractor
--Executive PM role for the Unified Tax System (UTS) project and Nevada Offender Tracking
Information System (NOTIS) project.
--Established Quality Assurance requirements for all IT projects
--Chaired Nevada Communications Steering Committee, which wrote the first comprehensive
statewide plan for first-responder radio communication interoperability. This involved the
successful coordination of over a dozen different organizations (state, federal, county, city, tribal
nations, etc) that had never worked together before
--Established cabinet-level IT Strategic Planning committee to evaluate and rank major IT
projects for budgeting purposes, and allocation of the state IT budget among various projects and
project requests
--Provided project planning and oversight of all major IT projects

IT Security

--Established and developed Nevada Office of Information Security
--Developed and implemented IT security policies statewide
--Performed IT risk assessments for state agencies
--Implemented award-winning process for identifying critical business applications and
developing disaster recovery plans for those applications

IT Service Operations Management

--Statewide backbone communications network (microwave, fiber)
--Expanded and modernized the Network Operations Center (NOC)
--Telecommunications
--Mainframe, UNIX, and Wintel computing platform hosting and operations
--Application and database design, development, and maintenance
--Statewide e-mail system (Exchange)

Financial and Management

--Operating budget of approximately $40M/year
--Developed service rates and chargeback methodology fully compliant with federal OMB
Circular A-87
--Regular briefings to the Governor and legislative committees

Interval Logic, Menlo Park, California 1999
(Software Developer. Advanced Planning and Scheduling Software)

Senior Software Integration Project Manager

--Managed software integration projects for semiconductor manufacturers
--Coordinated and supervised engineers in multiple locations
--Forecast consultant requirements and utilization
--Planned software projects in detail, including detailed scheduling and workload balancing
--Identified and resolved customer concerns, both technical and non-technical

21st Century Solutions, Inc. 1997 to 1998
(Consulting Firm)

Principal Consultant, Project Management

Worked with customers to:

--Develop master schedules for projects in fast-paced software development environments.
--Identify and track resources required for projects, leveling resources and adjusting schedules as
required to provide accurate completion estimates.
--Forecast staffing requirements based on project schedules.
--Develop change control systems, test plans and quality control procedures.

Consilium, Mountain View, California (1994-1996)
(Developer/implementer of manufacturing execution system (MES) software)

Senior Software Integration Project Manager

--Managed teams of engineers engaged in software development and software systems integration
projects for domestic and international clients
--Custom configuration of MES software running on both HP/Unix and VAX/VMS systems
--Configured and integrated automated document control systems
--During implementation projects, worked with customer QA organizations to ensure compliance of
integrated system with federal regulations
--Supervised design of validation test plans
--Developed cost estimates and proposals for software projects. (Customers included: Glaxo
Wellcome (Canada), Eli Lilly, ANAM Industrial (Korea), Amgen)

ICSensors, Milpitas, California 1992-1993
(Manufacturer of microelectronic and micro-mechanical devices)

Manager, Wafer Fabrication and Equipment Maintenance

--Instituted statistical process control in wafer fabrication area
--Implemented preventive maintenance program
--Wrote complete system of quality procedures
--Performed process failure analysis and recommended corrective actions
--Assessed Y2K compliance status of supplier systems
--Implemented an ISO-9000 compliant quality system

TRW Space & Defense Systems Group
Redondo Beach, California 1975 - 1992
(Defense Contractor)

Manager, Various Software, Semiconductor Manufacturing, and Financial tasks

--Implemented a networked PC-based office automation system for 1200-person division
--Responsible for hardware and software installation, user training, and support
--Developed automated project planning tool on VisiCalc, cutting down project "what if" turn
around from
overnight batch run to less than one hour/iteration
--Wrote output routines in FORTRAN IV on CDC 7700
--Performed binary programming of numerically controlled equipment
--Supervised combined production/R&D semiconductor manufacturing area
--Managed Advanced Packaging Lab, including transitioning from R&D to production quantities
--Performed extensive bid/proposal work and cost tracking and reporting
--As Senior Business Analyst, responsible for capital, indirect expense, and manpower planning

Education/Other Activities:

Project Management Institute (PMI), member
NASA PM certified, C/SCSC
BA Cum Laude, University of California at Los Angeles
Biochemistry studies, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena
Vice-President, National Association of State CIOs
Guest lecturer, National Defense University Information Resource Management College
Guest lecturer, National Governor’s Association Best Practices Policy Academy
Science Fiction Author

Partial Project List
Terry C Savage

Project title: Strategic Offender Management System (SOMS)
Approx total cost: $455M
Approx dates: 2009-present
Project scope: This project is to completely automate and integrate numerous disparate IT support systems within the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation, from original intake into the systems, through completion of parole and final release.

TCS role: I am responsible for technical systems operations broadly, including project planning, network capacity planning, infrastructure, Helpdesk, disaster recovery, and business continuity planning

==========================================

Project title: NOMADS
Approx total cost: $110M
Approx dates: 1994 - 2001
Project scope: This project completely replaced the Welfare and Child Support eligibility and management system with a new system compliant with federal requirements

TCS role: Chairman of the NOMADS project steering committee. Executive level project oversight. Management of the computer facility and mainframe systems that housed the application. Both vendor and state PMs reported to me. The IV&V contractor reported to me directly.

========================================

Project title: UTS
Approx total cost: $45M
Approx dates: 2004 - 2008
Project scope: The Unified Tax System project eliminated the varies spreadsheets and hand calculations in favor of a completely unified systems for all 17 tax types in the State of Nevada. The system will pay for itself through significantly enhanced ability to detect fraud and omissions on the part of taxpayers.

TCS role: Actively involved with the requirements definition process and proposal development and review. Served on the project Steering Committee. Both the vendor and state PMs reported to me directly, as did the state Quality Assurance function

Project title: MMIS
Approx total cost: $35M
Approx dates: 2000-2004
Project scope: Completely replace the Medicaid Management Information System with an updated system that met federal requirements. Interface with the NOMADS system for eligibility data.

TCS role: I served on the requirements definition steering committee, and chaired the development and operational steering committee. Both the vendor and state PMs reported to me directly, as did the independent Quality Assurance vendor
=========================================

Project title: Nevada Offender Tracking and Information System (NOTIS)
Approx total cost: $11M
Approx dates: 2005 - 2007
Project scope: The Nevada Offender Tracking and Information System was the first effort to provide significant improvement in the management of prisoner information in the state, including medical information, gang affiliation, and other essential data.

TCS role: Reviewed all proposals, served on the Steering Committee. Both the vendor and state PMs reported to me directly, as did the independent Quality Assurance function.

==========================================

Project title: Millennium Scholarship
Approx total cost: $5M
Approx dates: 2000-2001
Project scope: This project was sponsored by Governor Kenny Guinn using the tobacco settlement funds. The funds were to provide scholarships for qualified students to go to college. The IT project was to integrate the high school records with the University and Community College records system.

TCS role: I planned and managed the project, and supervised both technical personnel and the vendor doing the application development

=====================================

Project title: IT Security
Approx total cost: $4M
Approx dates: 2003 - 2007
Project scope: Establish the state IT Security function, assess the state’s IT security posture, identify and implement corrective actions for deficiencies and proactive procedures to secure the states IT assets.

TCS role: I had previously established the IT Security Committee in 2001 to develop basic IT security policies, and assist agencies with implementation of those policies. While the committee was extremely effective, a formal, staffed IT Security organization
was clearly needed. I successfully obtained funding for the Office of Information Security (OIS) from the legislature, and oversaw the development and implementation of an award winning disaster recovery planning process.

Project title: PMO
Approx total cost: $2M
Approx dates: 2005 - 2007
Project scope: Formally establish the Nevada Project Management Office, and develop and implement project management procedures based on the PMI/PMBOK methodology.

TCS role: I had previously established the IT Project Oversight Committee (ITPOC) in 2002 to oversee and assist with all state IT projects of $500K or more. While the committee was extremely effective, a formal, staffed PMO would clearly improve the committee’s effectiveness. I personally chaired the ITPOC for the first two years of operation, and successfully obtained funding for the PMO from the legislature.

=====================================

Project title: Arizona DFI IT Modernization
Approx total cost: $500K
Approx dates: 2007
Project scope: Complete Modernization of the IT function for the Arizona Department of Financial Institutions

TCS role: Project Manager and chief project engineer. Replace and upgrade all systems to be compliant with the Arizona CIOs policies and recommendations, including IT Security.

====================================

Project title: Nevada Communication Steering Committee (NCSC)
Approx total cost: N/A
Approx dates: 2002 - 2007
Project scope: The Nevada Communications Steering Committee was the first effort to successfully involve all interested parties in the development of a statewide First Responder Radio Interoperability Plan. This plan was passed without amendment or dissent by the Nevada Homeland Security Commission.

TCS role: I formed the committee, and chaired if from it’s inception to my departure from state government. I personally wrote the “action plan” section of the Interoperability Plan.

Meet Depressed: Joe Biden :Revelation

2010-02-14T16:54:00.000-08:00

Ol’ Joe Biden is reliably entertaining, and he didn’t disappoint today.

Today, however, he was extremely illuminating, which is quite out of character for him. To be fair, the illumination was unintentional…

Gregory (Who has done FAR better as host of Meet The Press than I expected; I was a hopeless Russert fan) asked him (all quotes approximate):

“There are a lot of people saying that the Obama administration isn’t taking the War on Terror seriously. How do you respond to that?”

And Ol’ Joe said:

“They must not be paying attention, then. We take the War on Al Qaeda extremely seriously…” and then went on to rant about the current Afghanistan campaign and Dick Cheney generally.

See the problem?

The QUESTION was about the War on Terror.

The ANSWER was about the War on Al Qaeda.

!!!THEY DON’T UNDERSTAND THE DIFFERENCE!!!!

This is extraordinarily revealing about the fundamental perceptual handicap that the Obama administration has on this entire issue. The problem is a size 1000, and they see it as a size 10. I haven’t seen anyone else pick up on this yet, but I’m sure they will.

And, full disclosure, I’ll second Dick Cheney’s view, and state that I completely endorse what the Obama administration is doing in Afghanistan currently, in general, and in Pakistan as well.

Carry on, Mr President!

:-)

TCS

Health Care Deform -- The Irrational Debate

2009-08-02T16:42:00.000-07:00

Before diving into the specific irrationality in the current health care deform debate, I need to dispel a myth. Do you remember the myth that the warmists threw out saying that the issue of global warming was “settled science?” Pure nonsense, of course, as is becoming increasingly clear.

The current myth is that “everyone agrees” that we need to do something about health care. Clearly false. I don’t agree. I know many people who don’t agree. But, more important than my limited set of personal data points is the fact that the American people don’t agree. In the most recent poll that I saw, 76% of Americans are happy with their health care.

The only health care “crisis” is how badly the government wants to screw it up.

The debate is irrational because people don’t know what they’re talking about, and are mangling the English language. The Democrats say they want to provide “insurance” for everyone. But it’s obvious from their proposals that they have no idea what insurance is, or how it works. This is best illustrated around the issue of “pre-existing conditions”.

Let’s say you have diabetes (as an increasing number of Americans do), and you apply to get health insurance. The insurance company may decline to cover you, or decline to cover anything related to your diabetes, because you already have it; it’s a pre-existing condition. This is entirely rational behavior on the part of the insurance company.

Insurance is about risk. Risk is about things that aren't known. Are you going to trip on the stairs and break your arm? Who knows? That means it’s a risk. But, insurance companies know roughly how often people fall and break their arms. So, they go through an arcane calculation, and decide the aggregate cost of the broken arms they are on the hook for, based on how many people they insure, how likely those people are to break their arms, and the cost of fixing a broken arm. That cost is then spread around the entire pool of people they insure. The people who break their arms get their bills paid. That’s how insurance works. It spreads around the risk of unknown things.

Now, suppose you fall and break your arm, and then you go to an insurance company, and you ask them to sell you a policy to cover the cost of the arm that you already broke.

How dumb is that? Breaking your arm isn’t a risk anymore, and insurance is about risk. You now have a broken arm---a pre-existing condition.

If you have a pre-existing condition, and you can’t afford to pay your medical bills, you need charity, not insurance. When people talk about providing “insurance” for a pre-existing condition, they are either lying, clueless, or both.

And, there’s another distinction that gets blurred in all of this: the distinction between charity and socialism. The difference is very clear.

Charity is voluntary.

Socialism is based on theft.

When you propose to steal money from some people to give it to others to pay for their pre-existing medical conditions, it’s not insurance. It’s not even charity. It’s socialism, socialized medicine, and it’s theft. And it’s extremely bad for the country.

Fortunately, the hugely socialist proposals that have been floating around seem to be going entirely off the rails. The poll numbers are clear. The more people know what's in this plan, the less they like it. And now, they will find out a lot about it before it ever goes to a vote. Congresscritters can expect to get a blistering earful during the August recess, and the advocates of socialism are not going to like what they’re going to hear. They’re going to hear that most people like the health care they have, and that Congress damned well better not do anything to mess with that, or they will regret it in 2010.

The worm has turned.

As a libertarian, I know all taxation is theft. As a realist, I know that sometimes it’s the right thing to do. But ObamaCare is absolutely the wrong thing to do.

If we do anything to our health care system (which is unnecessary, and ObamaCare would be hugely bad for the country), we should do five, and only five, things:

1) Mandate that Americans can buy insurance from any state that they choose. Eliminate state restrictions on out-of-state insurance purchases. In addition to making a big dent in costs to the consumer, this would be…for once…a proper use of the commerce clause.
2) We need to get serious about tort reform. Loser pays! This would go a long way to eliminating wasteful, expensive, unnecessary tests by doctors practicing defensive medicine.
3) Get the waste, fraud, and corruption out of Medicare and Medicaid
4) Expand Medicaid to cover people who are really too poor to get their own insurance (not to include people who choose to spend their money on other things)
5) Provide tax credits and/or vouchers to people who can afford to buy insurance with some help. In addition, level the tax playing field. Anyone who buys health insurance on their own, rather than through an employer, should get the same tax benefit that employers get now for providing it

That’s it. No further molestation of the free market required!

I was personally responsible for implementing the upgraded Medicaid Management Information System (MMIS) for the State of Nevada while I was Chief Information Officer for the state, so I know something about this.

I sent the above proposal to President Obama (in a slightly more polite form). We’ll see what he says!

What do you say?

Star Trek: Postcard from the Edge

2009-05-17T09:46:00.000-07:00

Due to a variety of circumstances, I didn’t get around to seeing the new Star Trek movie until Saturday. Very good movie, well worth seeing. Overall, it rates an A-.

The visual and sound effects were stunning, and for me, that’s reason enough to go watch a movie. The new Spock character is unbelievable. He’s not just good; he’s spooky good! You could almost imagine that it really was an earlier version of the original, and that imagining stood up just fine with a side-by-side comparison.

They also did a good job of modeling younger versions of the other main characters. McCoy was another outstanding replacement. A younger Scotty is still inventing crazy stuff that somehow works, and Kirk goes off to defend the galaxy against hopeless odds. The time twist involved in the plot was very gracefully done.

Still, there were a few detractors. The most obvious is the disgusting level of brutal violence. I’m not talking about the “high violence” of spaceships getting shot up. There was plenty of that too, and that’s fine. But the repeated use of bloody fistfights added nothing of value, and was a serious detraction. It made the film worse. The overall tone of the movie was also darker than I like.

Many of the action scenes, when they weren’t being excessively personally violent, were just chaotic and visually confusing. Stunning in visual and sound quality, but jumbled, and undisciplined. And they dragged on in that condition for too long.

As a more minor thing, the relationship between Spock and Uhura was tacky and contrived, and added nothing useful to the plot at all. The fact that the Spock character was so perfect a rendition added to the failure of this ploy. It was just clearly unnatural, and it didn’t work.

Overall the new Star Trek movie is a very good film. It could have been an excellent film with more civility, and more discipline. Sounds sort of like today’s youth culture, doesn’t it?

Idyllic Stroll

2009-05-10T13:11:00.000-07:00

I just spent some time in the backyard with the kids. We really have a pretty nice yard, and I don’t spend nearly enough time back there.

For the new folks here, Karen and I have four kids living at home, all of the furry, four-legged variety. They are, in order of age:

1) Chimera. We got Chimera when Cygnus, who we had for 18 years, died in 2004. Chimera was just a kitten then. She is a calico weighing about 16 lbs, and is a chubby little pudge ball.

2) Leia. Tiny little cat, maybe 8 lbs dripping wet (Which happens, because she likes water. She haunts Karen in the shower). The best description we’ve heard so far is that she is a champagne colored tabby. I had never seen a cat with that coloration before, although I have seen one other wandering around the neighborhood since. We got Leia in June 2005 when she was about a year old.

3) Xena. She was born in April 2005, and we got her in summer 2005. We thought we were getting a cute little Lab puppy. Turns out she’s a Lab mixed with Golden and Great Dane. She’s almost solid black, and weighs about 125 lbs (like her parents, she needs to lose a few). If she likes you, she will jump up and put her paws on your shoulders, and try to lick your face. If she doesn’t like you, she’s has a growl that comes straight from the depths of hell.

4) Hobbes. Son of Leia, born in May 2005. Leia was still nursing Hobbes when we got them together. Hobbes is also about 16 lbs, but solid muscle. He’s not the sharpest claw in the paw, but he can jump six feet straight up from a standing start.

Xena was 22 lbs when we got her, at around 3 months old. Hobbes was still tiny. Xena was a big bumbling mass of fur, and she terrified Hobbes. But not Leia. Leia would get between Xena and Hobbes, and just stand there. If Xena got too close, Leia would bop her on the nose. When Xena caught on that it didn’t hurt, Leia would bop her twice. When Xena got past that, Leia started using a little claw on the nose. That worked until Hobbes was big enough to easily escape (he’s very fast).

The relationship between Chimera and Xena is weird, but awesome. They’ll sleep together. They snuggle each other, as they compete for my attention. When Hobbes harasses Chimera, Xena goes to Chimera’s defense.

When Xena wants to go out, she scratches at the door. Leia quickly learned to do the same thing. We can’t let the cats out loose because of the coyotes (a neighbor lost one by doing that), but we let them out supervised. Xena was out, and Leia scratched at the door, so I went out with her. Hobbes and Chimera stayed on the deck, as Xena and Leia and I went down the stairs to the fenced back yard.

Normally, Leia makes a beeline for the fence, and scouts for holes to get out. She found quite a few before I plugged them. She could get over the fence if she really wanted, but it’s pretty tall, and it would take a lot of work.

But today was different. Instead of bolting for the fence, Leia kept next to me the whole time. Xena stayed with us for a while, but then went to one of the sitting spots she’s created. I pulled up a chair next to a fallen log, and watched the two of them, while Hobbes and Chimera played on the deck.

Xena knows when I move to go in, and if Leia doesn’t follow, Xena herds her in. After sitting for a while, some birds gathered on the deck, and I noticed the feeder was empty. So, I got up, Xena herded Leia toward the door, and we all went inside. At my motion to go in, Hobbes and Chimera just go inside on their own. I filled both the bird feeders, and closed the door. For now.

Ahhhhh….!

:-)

TCS

What the f**k was that??

2009-04-25T18:23:00.000-07:00

It was a beautiful summer morning in southern California, and Karen and I were flying along in our Cessna Cardinal RG, VFR in the central valley, from LA to our vacation home in Pine Mountain Lake. We had stopped outside Bakersfield for lunch, and then continued at low altitude, just enjoying the sights.

Then, out of nowhere, there was a huge *BANG!* from the front of the plane. We quickly lost about 15 knots of airspeed. Karen looked at me and said "What the f**k was THAT?" I said, "I don't know, but one way or another, we're screwed." I immediately started looking for emergency landing sights, and quickly found one at Pixley airport. I also started talking to the controllers about the issue (I frequently use flight following on cross country trips).

The weird thing was---we were now stable. Still flying slower, but the engine was rock steady, and the plane was stable. Pixley is a cow field, with no services at all. There are a bazillion safe places to put down a plane in the central valley, so I elected to continue on to Visalia, which had full maintenance facilities. I informed the controllers.

We arrived at Visalia in about half an hour or so without incident. I set up the approach, and moved the lever for the landing gear---and nothing happened. I cycled it several times. Nothing. I tried the manual gear pump. Nothing---and no resistance. I was talking to the controllers, and we got several mechanics on the line as well. I had read that when the normal extension mechanism doesn't work, you can try somewhat violent maneuvers to throw it down and locked. I tried that. Didn't work.

It was suggested we try to pull the gear down with the towbar. So, while I slowed down to just above stall, Karen opened her door, took the towbar, and tried to pull the gear into position (this is a high wing plane). She could hook the gear leg, and she could move it, but she couldn't get it to lock.

I should be clear, of course, that leaning out of a disabled airplane trying to fix it in-flight was NOT Karen's idea of a good time! She was a real trooper throughout the event. But, she liked the next idea even less---SHE had to fly the plane while *I* leaned out the open door! I got the gear leg hooked, and I was able to move it, and I was pretty sure I could get it into position and locked---but then it occurred to me that having one gear down and locked and one trailing was a *hugely* bad idea. The mechanics on the ground concurred.

After an hour or so trying various things, we polled the assembled wisdom on the radio, and everyone agreed there was nothing left to try---it was time for my first and (so far) only intentional gear up landing. I told everyone to get out of the way, because I was coming in. I did do an extra circle of the field to let a King Air depart.

At that time in my life, I read virtually every aviation magazine in print, and I had read that if you can stop the prop prior to a gear-up landing, you can minimize prop and engine damage. I even saw a picture of someone doing it! So I turned the engine off. Damned prop kept spinning. I lifted the nose to stop it, but we stalled early due to the excess drag. A lot more drag than I expected with the gear trailing, partially down! I pushed the nose down, and we were at least sort of flying again. We banged onto the runway, and slid on the belly for a very short distance, rotating 90 degrees to the right in the process. As we rotated, a wingtip dipped and just barely touched the runway, then righted when we stopped moving. As recommended by procedure, we had unlocked the doors prior to impact. Once we stopped moving, I said “Out!”, and we quickly moved away from the plane, also according to procedure.

Well, there was no fire, and it turns out that I had successfully saved both the engine and the prop. They lifted the plane up with a hoist, hauled the gear down to the locked position manually, and later flew the plane home for repairs---no engine or prop work required. Turns out a hydraulic fitting in the landing gear system had failed, and immediately dumped all the fluid overboard. There was no way we were going to get that gear down. And you know what…we didn't sue anybody! It was an older plane, and shit happens.

Since it was all on the radio while it was happening, there was a huge press corps and general gathering watching while I was doing all of this. We made the paper the next day, and I still have the clipping. When I opened the door to do my attempt at pulling the gear down, my flight bag had bailed out of the plane. This had been noted on the ground---and the local sheriff had dispatched troopers to find it, thinking I might have been dumping drugs! They never found it, unfortunately, but to this day, in 2009, I use the flight bag Karen bought me to replace that one.

When all the commotion had settled down, and I had done my required interview with the press, we rented a car, and continued the trip.

It wasn't until hours later, waiting for dinner at the Pine Mountain Lake Country Club, that I emotionally caught up with what had just happened. I calmed down, several drinks later---.

The plane was returned to service in fairly short order, and to the best of my knowledge, it’s still flying today! As are we!

:-)

TCS

The Fix

2009-04-21T14:52:00.000-07:00

Sometimes, on rare occasion, I’ve been known to rant about the level of disregard for the original intent of the Constitution, and numerous other Evils in politics and government today. It occurred to me that, to be fair, I should say what needs to be done to actually fix the problems.

Here’s The Fix:

The Constitution and all relevant laws will be modified or deleted as required to accommodate the following changes:

1) In addition to current requirements, an individual must speak, read, and write English clearly to be a US citizen. At least one natural parent must be a citizen for “birthright” citizenship to apply.

2) In order to vote in federal elections, a citizen must also meet one of the following two sets of requirements:

Set A)

I) Be at least 25 years old
II) Own property. Property ownership for this purpose must include the individual’s primary residence, and no more than two individuals may claim the same property/residence for this purpose.
III) Pass a competency test to demonstrate minimum competency in:
a) US History, with emphasis on the Constitution
b) Basic mathematics
c) Basic logical reasoning

Set B) Be at least 18 years old, and be a military combat veteran

3) In order to run for any federal office, a person must be a citizen eligible to vote, and meet the following additional requirements:

A) House: Be at least 30 years old, or 18 years old and a military combat veteran
B) Senate: Be at least 35 years old
C) President:

I) Be at least 40 years old
II) Completed at least one full term as Governor of a US State, or one full term as a US Senator

4) Except in time of war, federal taxes and spending may never exceed 10% of GDP. In time of war, non-defense spending may never exceed 10% of GDP.

5) Social Security and Medicare shall be phased out over 20 years after The Fix as follows:

A) Anyone currently 60 or older gets full current benefits
B) Anyone currently under 20 gets zero benefits
C) Anyone between 20 and 60 will get pro-rated benefits

6) The income tax shall be abolished by freezing all current income tax rates, and then reducing each by 10% per year until the income tax is eliminated.

7) Other Amendments not-withstanding, the Bill of Rights shall remain in full effect, but shall apply only to actions taken by the Federal government, and shall have no impact on the states. States are free to adopt any, all, or none of the amendments, at their sole discretion.

8) The doctrine of specific enumerated powers shall be in full effect. Any power not specifically delegated to the federal government by the constitution, shall not be exercised by the federal government.

9) Any state may secede from the union on affirmative vote of 2/3 of its citizens. Terms of the divorce shall be mutually agreed by a panel consisting of the Governor of the State, the US President, and a third individual chosen by those two.

10) No one may serve in the House of Representatives for more than 12 years. No one may serve in the Senate for more than 18 years.

11) All current federal laws must be renewed within 10 years from the date of The Fix, or they expire. Each proposed renewal must be by individual vote of each legislator, with a recorded vote by name.

12) The commerce clause is amended to make it explicit that congress can forbid restrictions on trade between the states, but not impose them. All laws currently restricting trade between the states, or restricting behavior not clearly, obviously, and directly related to trade between the states, are repealed.

13) Patents and copyrights shall be limited to not more than 10 years. A 5 year extension may be granted for substantive, material changes only, but under no circumstances may any patent or copyright last beyond 20 years.

14) No monopoly authority of any kind shall be granted to the post office.

15) Delete the two year restriction on military appropriations

16) The borders shall be secured sufficiently that illegal entry is reduced to less than 1% of all entries, by reasonable statistical estimate.

17) For 5 years after The Fix, a citizen shall be required to show a government issued photo ID in order to vote in federal elections. After 5 years, the ID must be directly traceable to citizenship documentation in order to vote.

18) The Second Amendment shall be amended to read: “The right of law abiding citizens to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.”

19) The federal budget must be balanced, except in time of war. In time of war, the non-defense related part of the budget must be balanced. The debt existing at the time of The Fix shall be repaid over a period of 100 years. Additional debt incurred during future times of war shall be repaid within 20 years of incurring the debt. No debt may be incurred except in time of war, although a reserve account amounting to 10% of the federal budget may be established. Existing non-defense deficits must be reduced by 10%/year until they are eliminated.

20) Allowability of evidence in federal crimes shall be based on the reliability of the evidence, not on the method by which it was obtained.

21) The 10th Amendment shall be strictly construed. No power shall be exercised by the federal government unless explicitly authorized by the constitution.

22) In the 14th Amendment, “due process” shall be construed to mean that laws and rules set in state statute are followed, and does not imply any specific content restrictions to those laws and rules.

23) The 17th Amendment is amended so that Senators shall be elected by the state legislatures, as originally specified.

24) The 16th Amendment is repealed. No income tax shall be permitted at the federal level.

25) The 26th Amendment is repealed.

Not that complicated, really. We just need to go back to the vision of limited government that the founding fathers intended. By outlining the specifics that are needed, I have now retained my moral right to whine about the way things are.

That right is very important to me!

:-)

TCS

Out of the Bottle

2009-04-20T13:57:00.000-07:00

Any good libertarian is familiar with the term “statist”, referring to people who have an exaggerated belief in the value of large government. A term that sounds similar, but is very different, is the term “stasist.” A stasist is someone who believes that things are pretty much fine the way they are (or at least some things are), and shouldn’t be allowed to change. An example of a “stasist” would be someone who advocates arbitrary restrictions on hiring and firing, in an attempt to keep things the way they are, and prevent change. There are many other examples.

While stasists abound in the political arena, stasists completely dominate in the area of human genetics. Everyone thinks things are pretty much fine, and if you suggest otherwise, people look at you funny. Trust me on that one!

Before going forward, there’s an annoying tendency during these discussions for people to say something like “But your environment has a lot to do with it!” They say it as though it’s relevant to the conversation, which it rarely is. The characteristics that people manifest are almost invariably a combination of genetics and environment. For this discussion, I am only referring to the genetic component of what gets manifested, and not making any claim that genetics determines everything.

It doesn’t. But it matters a lot more than many people are willing to admit.

There are three areas of human genetics where we need to break out of the stasist attitude. We will eventually do so in any case, but the sooner the better. They are:

Cloning

This is one of the few things that has improved substantially in the transition from Bush 43 to Obama. It’s not that cloning is really that important, as an end in itself. Many people would enjoy cloning their favorite pet, and I might not mind raising a clone of myself at some point in the future, but that’s peripheral. Cloning’s real value is as a tool. It’s one way to obtain an individual’s stem cells, which can then be used for numerous medical objectives. But much more importantly, if we’re going to be working to make genetic improvements, as I strongly suggest we should, it will be invaluable to have multiple copies of identical base material.

Aging

We are programmed to die, and it doesn’t have to be that way. At the ends of our strands of DNA, there’s something called a “telomere”, sort of an “end cap” to the DNA strand, that holds the strand together. Every time the DNA strand divides, a little bit of the telomere is stripped off. When it degrades too far, the cell dies. What we see as aging is the outward manifestation of that DNA degeneration, and cell death.

There’s an upside to this, of course. If cells can divide and divide for ever and ever, that can be bad too. We call it “cancer”.

Early in our evolution, this balance was not a problem. The vast majority of people died from other causes long before aging kicked in as the limiting factor. So, cancer was prevented (most of the time) in a way that, practically speaking, had no real consequences.

Things are different now, and a very substantial fraction of our population now dies from DNA degeneration…from aging. We can fix that, but in order to do it, we need a concerted effort to understand how this mechanism works, at the molecular biology level. To find solutions, we need to tinker…try this, try that…and see what works. And see what doesn’t. A stasist attitude toward the human genome will not allow that, and the overwhelming stasist tendency in this regard must be overcome.

Improvement

This is the issue that tends to cause otherwise rational people to start babbling incoherently, and foaming at the mouth (intellectually speaking). So, it may be helpful to clear a couple of things up.

First, I am not some megalomaniacal villain, looking to populate the world with my clones. I have at least my share of genetic defects. Most of them have been handled with modern technology, but if I could correct them, I would.

Second, I am a libertarian at heart, after all, and I am not proposing any coercive measures. None. We can make a difference by simply getting out of the way, and letting Darwin do his work, instead of structuring society in a way that seems almost designed to promote the survival of the unfittest.

Fixing the DNA of genetic defects like me is not currently possible, but is absolutely plausible. A virus invades cells, takes over the genetic replication process, and produces copies of itself, rather than copies of the genetic code of the original organism. So, suppose we could figure out the change in my genes that would be necessary to correct my miserable eyesight. Conceptually, a virus could be engineered that would take over my existing cells, and replace my existing genes with the code for corrected eyesight. I’d have a cold for a few days, and then I could see well. More importantly, we could make it possible that no one need be born with poor eyesight ever again.

This is just one of the almost endless improvement opportunities available. But to do it, we need to give up on the stasist notion that the human genome is just fine the way it is.

We also need to give up on the illusion that we can stop this from happening. Anything that humanity can do, someone will do. We can keep America behind the times for a bit, with misguided rules and restrictions, but we can’t stop it. The djinni is writhing out of the bottle as I type, and it will never go back in. We may be able to guide it to some extent, but not stop it.

Just as well, really. We can make ourselves better. And we should.

TCS

Leaving the nest

2009-04-15T09:47:00.000-07:00

The weather was the best around here in months, and I took advantage of it! I flew for 2.5 hours, my longest flight yet in Phoenix, my little Challenger II LSA. I landed at 4 different airports, and it was the first time I re-fueled away from home, and then continued the trip. At least, in this incarnation!

I have been keeping track of the fuel burn since I decreased the prop pitch. I originally set my cruise rpm at 6400-6500 with the new pitch, and got a burn of 3.6 gph. About what I got before with full throttle cruise, around 6200-6300 rpm. The last two tanks, I increased to 6500-6600 rpm, got a few extra mph, and increased fuel burn to 3.8 gph. Certainly not a crushing penalty! I’ll be bumping that up to 6600- 6700 rpm, and see what happens with that. There were a couple of cases during the flight where I was very happy for the increased climb capability of the decreased pitch.

Since the wind was fairly calm, I decided to go over the mountains into the Tahoe basin, fly across it, and then land at Truckee airport. When I went through Spooner pass, it was tempting to fly straight across the water to Brockway pass, but I was spooked about the prospect of flying 10 miles over water. In retrospect, since I was 2200 ft above lake level, I probably could have made it to shore at any point with an engine failure, but I wanted to fly over my house and take a picture anyhow, which I did. There are enough beaches around the lake that it would have worked at any point, but I didn’t quite realize how big a fraction of the Tahoe shoreline is just big rocks!

I tuned in the Truckee AWOS (first time I’ve used that in this incarnation), and while the normal runway is 28, the winds, still moderate but higher than at Carson City, were favoring runway 19. It’s shorter than 28, but at 4600 ft, “short” is relative! When I switched to the CTAF, the place was a complete zoo. Someone was waiting to take off from runway 28---waiting for a plane that was taking off from runway 10! They may both have had headwinds. That kind of thing happens out here with some regularity.

One thing happened that was a little weird. The pilot on 28 deferred to the one taking off on 10, and I was just getting ready to turn base for 19. I told her I didn’t need much runway, and wouldn’t get to the intersection with 28, and that I’d report stopped, and she said that was fine. I stopped and made the call, but she couldn’t hear me! But I could hear her. She kept asking if I was down. Unicom said they saw me stop, but they couldn’t hear me either. I could hear them fine. In the air they could all hear me fine. The radio worked fine for the rest of the day.

Truckee is at 5900 ft elevation, and the relevant mountain pass is somewhat closer than it is from Carson City. So, I decided to give the climb performance a more difficult test, and headed straight for the pass. There was a great alternate landing site about halfway up (ski resort parking lot!), so I had that covered. By the time I crossed the 7200 ft pass, I was only at 8000 ft. Not awful, but less than I wanted. Still, a good test!

I am definitely noticing a difference with the engine temps with the lower prop pitch/higher rpms. The EGTs are both higher. They had been running around 950, and now they typically run 1000-1050. But, on descent, I need to watch to make sure they don’t overtemp when I reduce power. It never used to do that, but I was never making descents from 8500+ft before, so I don’t really know the cause. When they brush up against 1200, they drop immediately with a substantial power reduction, and then I increase the power until I find a stable setting. As I get used to it, I’ll probably get to the point where I just set it right on initial descent---but I’m not there yet.

The CHTs went up only very slightly with the pitch decrease/rpm increase, but now one of them is acting flakey. It will be cruising along at 210-225, and then all of a sudden, drop down to 125-150, and bounce around there for a while. Eventually, it will go back to 210-225. Is it even possible from a physics standpoint that the cylinder head could cool that much that fast, and then wobble around? There’s no discernible change in engine power or sound, and the EGT remains stable. My guess is that this is a gauge problem, maybe caused by additional vibration from operating at a consistently higher rpm? Thoughts appreciated!

After clawing my way back in to the Tahoe basin, I was once again tempted to go over water to Spooner pass on the other side. But, there was another pass visible that I had never noticed before, which was a much more direct route home. I looked at the chart, but I couldn’t get a clear sense of the elevation of that pass (no road), so I stuck with my original route. I did climb up to 9500 ft for the first time, and at that altitude I’m sure I would have made the other route. Maybe next time. 9500 ft sure didn’t look very high, since most of the ridgeline I was flying next to was barely below that. Definitely still climbing, though. At 9500 ft as a realistic altitude, I can definitely get to pretty much everywhere around here, without excessive diversion to find lower terrain.

Over Spooner pass, I considered turning north to go home since I had gotten a late start, but decided to continue, so I turned south toward Minden airport to get fuel. Just when I was getting ready to turn base, I heard a King Air call in on downwind behind me. I told him I’d try to clear the runway quickly, and he came back with a cheery “No worries!” Still, I landed a good ways down from the threshold to minimize ground time, and didn’t roll more than a few hundred feet before making the turnoff. After getting them adjusted at the annual, the brakes work GREAT.

What’s amazing about this is that a radio isn’t legally required for any of these airports! They are all uncontrolled fields. I don’t think I’d feel at all comfortable flying around in this beehive completely out of comm, legal though it would be. On the other hand, I *LIKE* the fact that this is a very active GA area, with everything from gliders, trikes, and powered parachutes, through Citations and King Airs, and everything in between.

After refueling, I took off for Alpine County airport. It’s pretty much in the middle of nowhere, at the bottom of the Carson Valley, just before the Sierra Nevada mountains start to rise sharply. The normal pattern is right traffic for runway 35, so I set that up, and landed without incident---until I noticed once on the ground that I had landed slightly downwind! Hadn’t done that in a long time. I hadn’t spotted the windsock from the pattern. I had originally intended just a touch and go, but it didn’t feel quite right, and that was why. So, I made a full stop, taxied down to the end of runway 17, and took off. I lifted off quickly, but I wasn’t happy with the climb rate given the rising terrain in front of me. Runway 17 points toward some very high terrain, even though there is a sharp drop off at the end of the runway, leading down to a valley before the mountains start in earnest. I thought about turning to follow a canyon, until I realized I wasn’t sure which way the water was flowing. So, I did a steep 180 instead, and headed north toward home, with a new respect for how tightly that little CWS can turn around!

On the flight back, I noticed a slight vibration, sort of a flutter. I’ve noticed this before, but then it goes away. It only seems to happen at certain combinations of airspeed and rpm, but not consistently, and I haven’t been able to characterize it. It may be related to being slightly uncoordinated; I guess I haven’t fully internalized the additional rudder needed with the doors on yet, since I noticed the ball off center a couple of times. It doesn’t feel like it’s the engine itself, which still seems smooth, and I don’t feel it in the stick or rudder. It’s not severe, but it’s distracting. Anybody have any idea what this might be?

By the time I got back to Carson City, I was tired, cramped, and stiff. If I’m going to fly any distance in the little beast regularly, I am going to DEFINITELY need to get better seats. More weight---Hoorah! Not the tightest pattern I’ve ever done, and I bounced the landing. Not a BIG bounce, mind you, and it was on the mains, but still---

I’m a big believer in silly milestones, and with this flight, over 10% of the total flight time Phoenix has is mine, 32 out of 311 hours.

Overall, just an AWESOME day!

:-)

TCS

People DO care!

2009-04-08T12:11:00.001-07:00

Despite all appearances to the contrary, people do care what I think!

At least, Arbitron does.

Karen and I have been selected to record what radio stations we listen to for a week, and get added in to the ratings pool.

After all of the entertainment he's provided to me over the years, I'll be happy to contribute to Rush getting another buck or two!

:-)

TCS

What, me worry?

2009-04-04T10:42:00.000-07:00

In the summer of 1994, I was sitting in first class in an American Airlines DC-9, sipping a drink at 35,000 feet, and contentedly watching the world move past below.

And then, I had a revelation. The nature of the universe became more clear, and I knew that I needed to get religion. This will come as a total shock to people who only knew me before that time.

But…which religion? I considered many, and the finalists were LDS, Judaism, and Buddhism. At the end of the day, I found all of the COTS offerings wanting, so I wrote my own code, and created Myquaos.

I describe Myquaos as a combination of Christianity, Buddhism, and The Force. But, it doesn’t really follow any of those particularly closely.

Of course, any good religion needs Commandments, and the 10 Commandments of Myquaos are listed below. If they appeal to you, perhaps you are a Myquasian, as I am.

Over time, I have very fitfully worked at fleshing out the Myquasian religion. I would appreciate your input on the issue.

:-)

TCS

The Ten Commandments of Myquaos
(Listed in order of precedence)

I) Thou shalt not take thyself, nor anything else, too seriously.

II) Never let your sense of morals stop you from doing what is right.

III) Thou shalt not initiate physical force against another sentient being.

IV) Thou shalt not lie.

V) Thou shalt honor thy agreements, when voluntarily made.

VI) Choose something that makes a difference to you, and go out and change the world.

VII) Thou shalt not whine.

VIII) Do not delay action by waiting for certainty or perfection.

IX) If you find an activity inspiring, pursue it vigorously to uncover its spiritual significance.

X) Do good, avoid evil, and celebrate life!

Class "M" Planets!

2009-04-02T13:42:00.000-07:00

To my mind, space travel and other worlds have always been the heart of good science fiction. I’ll enjoy a non-space-technology story every once in a while, but if it doesn’t have spaceships or aliens, I usually get bored fairly quickly.

Asimov’s Foundation trilogy is among the best science fiction ever written. The books were published in the early 1950s, and they assumed the presence of millions of habitable planets in the galaxy, many of which had people on them. I grew up with science fiction so early in life, that it never seriously occurred to me that there might not be other planets with life on them. But, outside of the science fiction world, that view was far from universal. When I wrote a paper on life beyond Earth for my freshman astronomy class at CalTech, it was greeted with tolerant amusement. Both generally and in the scientific world, the notion that there were other habitable worlds out there…worlds we might go to…was viewed with great skepticism.

Now, we are finding them!

Weird worlds so far, to be sure. None of the “Class M” planets that were so prevalent on Star Trek yet. Most of the planets we’ve found are large, several times the size of Jupiter. Some are so large that there is debate about whether they are really planets, or failed stars. Some orbit far from their suns, and some orbit so close that they scream around their parent stars. So far, there have been no “mirror Earths”, just waiting to be colonized.

However, this doesn’t indicate in the slightest that those habitable planets don’t exist! The fact that we haven’t seen them is due to the limitations of our current search techniques. We are still in the very early stages of learning to find planets around other stars and, not surprisingly, it’s easier to find big ones, than it is to find small ones like Earth.

But, we are trying:

http://planetquest.jpl.nasa.gov/TPF/tpf_index.cfm

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has always been the most reliably awesome part of NASA, and this is no exception! Scheduled for launch within the next decade, the SIM PlanetQuest mission will search 250 neighboring stars for Earth-like planets.

I’ve said for a long time that if you give Hollywood 16 pixels of an Earth-like planet, they’ll build an entire civilization around it! Perhaps Captain Kirk’s great, great grandfather will be born this year. On the other hand, with the depressed level of public interest in space currently, maybe it will take 64 pixels.

In this “Other Worlds” section of my blog, I’ll be reporting on updates in the search for, and exploration of, new worlds!

I’m seriously considering working with the National Space Society (NSS) to reactivate their speakers program, which has apparently gone dormant. The first part of that effort would be to develop a series of slick visual presentations for the speakers to give. There’s an enormous amount of artwork available free from NASA, and when we’re reporting on a private company, I’d be surprised if that company wouldn’t be happy to provide us with zingy promotional images and footage.

The danger, of course, is if we try to make it “educational”, or “informative”. That will turn the whole thing into a real snoozer. It has to be entertaining, above all else. That means a lot more visuals, and a lot fewer words. Curiously, that’s exactly what worked for me whenever I was making a pitch for a project to the Governor here in Nevada. He was a very intelligent man, but he just didn’t have the time to listen to a lot of long-winded, droning information, no matter how “vital” I thought the information was. I had to condense complicated technical and economic issues so that they were interesting, persuasive, and deliverable in a very short time.

This should be an interesting project!

:-)

TCS

http://www.nss.org/

Check this out!

2009-04-02T11:56:00.000-07:00

Check out the site, "Transterrestrial Musings", by Rand Simberg. I've known Rand for over 3 decades, and he's both smart and entertaining. But, beware! His site is not for the faint of heart. He doesn't suffer fools lightly, he calls it like he sees it, and points to things that most others miss.

In other words, my kind of guy!

:-)

http://www.transterrestrial.com/

TCS

The 3rd Party Paradox

2009-04-01T17:30:00.000-07:00

I’ve cycled through a number of party affiliations over the course of my political life. When I was poor and ignorant, I registered Democrat. When I was still ignorant, but no longer poor, I re-registered Republican. When I finally gained some more detailed understanding of both my own views, and the positions of the two major parties, I re-registered Libertarian. And, at various times for short periods, I was registered as non-partisan.

While I’m currently a registered Republican, I’m really best described as a recovering Libertarian.

I had been very active in the movement to build space colonies for many years, but I finally concluded that the cost was just prohibitive with current technology. I lost my faith in that path, but I still wanted to make a difference in the world. If I couldn’t build a new, free world, I could at least try to make this one freer.

I was living in California at the time, and decided that I would run for State Assembly in District 20, centered in the Milpitas/Fremont area near San Jose. When I asked the “old hands” why Libertarians never win, I was told that:

1) We never raise enough money
2) We never get enough publicity

So, I focused the campaign on raising money and getting publicity, which we did at record levels. I raised as much money as the Republican candidate. I got an outstanding level of publicity, fully competitive with both the other candidates. And, at the end of the day, I got 7% of the vote. That’s in the very high percentiles of what Libertarians get in 3-way races, but the bottom line is, I lost. I did, however, gain some wonderful friends, and some insightful experience.

Money and publicity are not enough. The main paper in the district said I was the best 3rd party candidate they had ever seen, but they didn’t think the voters were ready for the level of reduction in government that I was proposing. And they were right. That’s not going to change, ever, with anything like the current electorate.

So, what’s the value of third parties? Paradoxically, it seems that the more “successful” a third party is, the more it drives the results farther from their objective! If they really want to be effective, people who believe in the Green philosophy should work hard for the Libertarian Party, and people who believe in freedom should work hard for the Green Party. Probably give them money, too.

People need to start looking at the results of their efforts, instead of the process. And, as a hint, philosophical pontification is almost invariably about the process, and not about the results.

There are many examples of the 3rd Party Paradox, perhaps the most visible being the defeat of Bush 41 by Bill Clinton. Ross Perot professed a desire to increase the level of accountability and responsibility in government. So, he gets Clinton elected. Smooth move, Ex Lax! More recently, the same scenario is playing out in Minnesota as I type. The third party candidate was never going to win, but seems poised on the edge of electing the candidate least sympathetic to his views.

Third party adherents try to suggest that “there’s no difference between the two major parties”, but this is, of course, patent nonsense. Both major parties have evil qualities, to be sure, but they are very different. One of the few good things that President Obama is doing is bringing this fallacy into stark relief. Even when I was an active, ardent Libertarian, I never bought in to the equivalence myth. From the standpoint of freedom, Republicans are vastly superior to Democrats, pathetic though they most certainly are in that regard.

In addition to the more public examples of the paradox, I have two painful personal examples as well. When I ran for State Assembly in 1994, and got 7% of the vote, the Democrat won with just barely over 50%. The Republicans immediately and ongoingly blamed me for costing them that election. The numbers didn’t quite add up, if you just added my total to his. But, if instead of running against him, I had actively worked for him? Dunno. It could easily have turned out differently.

And, there was an interesting Chaotic effect in that case. The State Assembly was split literally 50/50 that year, and as a result, Willy Brown retained his position as Speaker. There’s a real blow for freedom on my part! If the Republican had won in my race, that wouldn’t have happened, and I was blamed for that result. I don’t think the numbers would have quite worked, even if I had worked for the Republican---but they very easily might have, if things had been only slightly different.

The more troubling case for me was the election of 1998, where the numbers very strongly support the contention that I re-elected Harry Reid to the US Senate. I was Chairman of the Libertarian Party of Nevada for that election, and I recruited a full slate of candidates, including a strong candidate to run against Reid. The party was largely in disarray when I took over, and if I hadn’t recruited that candidate, there most likely wouldn’t have been one at all. Exit polls clearly show that, absent a Libertarian candidate, Libertarians will fairly reliably vote 2:1 in favor of the Republican in the race (a wise choice). Reid won by a few hundred votes. The Libertarian candidate got a few thousand votes.

If I hadn’t recruited a strong Libertarian candidate? Do the math. If you like Harry Reid, you should thank me. Another major blow on my part for the cause of freedom!

Crap.

So, what did I do? I was the Libertarian candidate for Governor of Nevada in the year 1998, and after I lost to him decisively, the victorious Republican, Governor Kenny Guinn, appointed me to his cabinet, where I served as Chief Information Officer for 7 years. During that time, I saved the taxpayers millions of dollars, shrinking my Department staff by over 20%, while simultaneously increasing production by a like amount.

Frequently, in politics in the real world, you will face an iron clad choice between making a statement, and making a difference. Occasionally, rarely, you can do both, but the vast majority of the time, you’ll need to decide which of the two is more important to you.

Think results, not process.

So, what’s a freedom lover to do? We’ll discuss that in future installments!

:-)

TCS

Space Colonies -- Time to Reboot!

2009-03-31T16:51:00.000-07:00

My interest in space was formed in a very different time than we are living in today. We were in the middle of the Cold War then, and while I was in high school, we landed men on the moon for the first time in human history. The pace of space development with the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo programs was simply stunning. Every flight---sometimes twice in a month!---we did something new, something that had never been done before. It seemed like anything was possible!

Politically, the best way to describe me is a “recovering Libertarian”. I’ve always believed in freedom, and minimum government, with the exception of robust national defense. I’ve run for office, I’ve run a state political party, and I’ve run a government agency (Nevada Department of Information Technology). When I was very young, I wanted to “save the world”. Didn’t we all? When I determined that to be impossible (too much inertia relative to my meager power), I decided the best thing to do was to start a new community in space, with a much stronger, more explicit freedom orientation than even the United States Constitution provides.

When I first started looking at the technical issues involved in space travel, the problem struck me as daunting. Still, with the obvious progress being made in the race to the moon, it seemed like an achievable objective. I joined the L5 Society (later NSS) and started OASIS (Organization for the Advancement of Space Industrialization and Settlement) for the purpose of getting the resources allocated to build a space colony.

But, even as I was ramping up my efforts, the darkness was starting to descend. Popular interest in space plunged, and the final lunar missions were cancelled. Politically, we became obsessed with picking lint out of our collective navel. There was great enthusiasm in the private sector, and many companies were formed that would be able to deliver space services at a fraction of the cost of NASA, in just a few years. Well, maybe just a few more years. OK, maybe, at least, in a decade or so.

And gradually, in terms of visible results, nothing happened. At least, nothing visible to an unrepentant colonist, who was only peripherally interested in the technical details. I lost my faith, and turned my attention to other things. And so things remained, for many years.

Then, finally, Rutan et al won the X-Prize! Something had actually happened! A long way from private access to orbit, to be sure, and there’s still no clear path to space colonies, but at least the “So What?” meter has finally come off the peg. A glimmer of hope!

And at the same time, the need for space colonies has become resurgent, in seemingly just a few years. The march toward socialism in the United States seems unstoppable, and the delusional Warmists are on the verge of retarding the growth in standard of living worldwide, to no good purpose. The two, or course, are not unrelated.

So, there’s a glimmer of hope, and an increasingly urgent need, but what’s to be done about it? Rich folks have many ways to make a difference. They can fly in space themselves, they can invest in private space ventures, and they can use the considerable opportunities available for those with means to increase government support for space development and exploration. But what can an average guy do? Just an unrepentant colonist, say?

I don’t have the specific answer, but I know what the key is. For sure, the key is not education. It’s not even information. And it is most certainly not in technical analysis.

The key is entertainment! For better or ill, we now live in the United States of Entertainment, and any solution for making a major change is going to be primarily based in that domain. That hasn’t always been true, and won’t be true forever. But it is now, and will be into the foreseeable future.

I’ve always understood this on a personal level, in my interactions with people, and in my presentations, both of which are generally successfully entertaining. It’s only recently become apparent to me, though, that if I’m going to make a difference in the world, I need to enter, and come to understand, that murky world, where reason and analysis play a decidedly secondary role.

It should be an interesting adventure!

TCS
Terry C Savage
Science Fiction Author
The End of Winter
http://tinyurl.com/end-of-winter-savage
http://tcsendofwinter.blogspot.com/

The End of Winter

2009-03-30T13:06:00.000-07:00

My first book, The End of Winter, is now published, and available at Amazon:

http://tinyurl.com/end-of-winter-savage

I would very much welcome comments about the story here! A brief summary appears below.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

In 2808 AD, humanity has achieved faster than light travel, and has explored thousands of light years away from Earth. Many other races have been encountered, but the Earth Space Force is clearly the dominant military power in the region. However, there are pirates and renegades of many kinds that plague space commerce, and the ESF has primary responsibility for suppressing them. As the story begins, Commander Curt Jackson of the ESF is commanding a squadron of fighters searching for renegades. When he finds them, he discovers his own squadron is hopelessly outnumbered by smaller, faster ships, and he begins to prepare for the worst. Suddenly, an enormous unidentified vessel joins the battle, and the tide turns in favor of Curt’s squadron. For centuries, there had been rumors about an ancient race just beyond the boundaries of known space. The people of Earth are about to meet them.

******************************

The opening scene in 2808 is on the edge of the region of space known to the Earth Space Force. The first few centuries of human exploration of the galaxy included many encounters with other intelligent civilizations, but only a small fraction of them had achieved faster than light travel. As the ESF pushed the boundaries of the Earth sphere of influence thousands of light years away from Earth, the number of mid-tech civilizations continued in one direction away from Earth, around the disc of the galaxy, with the number of spacefaring civilizations actually gradually declining.

The trend in the opposite direction of exploration was entirely different. People had theorized for generations that the density of advanced civilizations would be uniform around the galaxy radially, with an increasing density toward the center. Not so! There were clearly a decreasing number of civilizations in one direction, and an increase in both number and level of sophistication in the other. The further out the ESF explored, the more widespread and specific the rumors became of an ancient empire that had receded many millennia ago.

As the level of technological sophistication of the planets increased, the level of believability of the rumors declined. The Ancients weren’t just one species, but dozens of them. Their ships were enormous, with impenetrable shields, and incredibly powerful weapons. They were rumored to be able to obtain speeds in excess of several light years per hour! Their expansion seemed relentless, until they were beaten back by some terrible, mysterious force. The humans mostly ignored these fantastic stories, but when they got several thousand light years away from Earth, the rumors became too pervasive to ignore. There were even first hand reports of live contacts with the Ancients!

Sunrise

2009-03-30T11:28:00.000-07:00

It's time to come out of the shadows, and enter the blogosphere!

I already know how to fly in the atmosphere. Hopefully, I'll quickly learn how to fly here as well.

Comments very much appreciated, but be gentle at first. This is my first time!

Thx,

TCS